California 2050 Projected Urban Growth

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1909
149
Updated
09 May 2010

50 year Projected Urban Growth scenarios. Base year is 2000. Projected year in this dataset is 2050.

By 2020, most forecasters agree, California will be home to between 43 and 46 million residents-up from 35 million today. Beyond 2020 the size of California's population is less certain. Depending on the composition of the population, and future fertility and migration rates, California's 2050 population could be as little as 50 million or as much as 70 million. One hundred years from now, if present trends continue, California could conceivably have as many as 90 million residents.
Where these future residents will live and work is unclear. For most of the 20th Century, two-thirds of Californians have lived south of the Tehachapi Mountains and west of the San Jacinto Mountains-in that part of the state commonly referred to as Southern California. Yet most of coastal Southern California is already highly urbanized, and there is relatively little vacant land available for new development. More recently, slow-growth policies in Northern California and declining developable land supplies in Southern California are squeezing ever more of the state's population growth into the San Joaquin Valley.
How future Californians will occupy the landscape is also unclear. Over the last fifty years, the state's population has grown increasingly urban. Today, nearly 95 percent of Californians live in metropolitan areas, mostly at densities less than ten persons per acre. Recent growth patterns have strongly favored locations near freeways, most of which where built in the 1950s and 1960s. With few new freeways on the planning horizon, how will California's future growth organize itself in space? By national standards, California's large urban areas are already reasonably dense, and economic theory suggests that densities should increase further as California's urban regions continue to grow. In practice, densities have been rising in some urban counties, but falling in others.

These are important issues as California plans its long-term future. Will California have enough land of the appropriate types and in the right locations to accommodate its projected population growth? Will future population growth consume ever-greater amounts of irreplaceable resource lands and habitat? Will jobs continue decentralizing, pushing out the boundaries of metropolitan areas? Will development densities be sufficient to support mass transit, or will future Californians be stuck in perpetual gridlock? Will urban and resort and recreational growth in the Sierra Nevada and Trinity Mountain regions lead to the over-fragmentation of precious natural habitat? How much water will be needed by California's future industries, farms, and residents, and where will that water be stored? Where should future highway, transit, and high-speed rail facilities and rights-of-way be located? Most of all, how much will all this growth cost, both economically, and in terms of changes in California's quality of life?
Clearly, the more precise our current understanding of how and where California is likely to grow, the sooner and more inexpensively appropriate lands can be acquired for purposes of conservation, recreation, and future facility siting. Similarly, the more clearly future urbanization patterns can be anticipated, the greater our collective ability to undertake sound city, metropolitan, rural, and bioregional planning.

Consider two scenarios for the year 2100. In the first, California's population would grow to 80 million persons and would occupy the landscape at an average density of eight persons per acre, the current statewide urban average. Under this scenario, and assuming that 10% percent of California's future population growth would occur through infill-that is, on existing urban land-California's expanding urban population would consume an additional 5.06 million acres of currently undeveloped land. As an alternative, assume the share of infill development were increased to 30%, and that new population were accommodated at a density of about 12 persons per acre-which is the current average density of the City of Los Angeles. Under this second scenario, California's urban population would consume an additional 2.6 million acres of currently undeveloped land. While both scenarios accommodate the same amount of population growth and generate large increments of additional urban development-indeed, some might say even the second scenario allows far too much growth and development-the second scenario is far kinder to California's unique natural landscape.

This report presents the results of a series of baseline population and urban growth projections for California's 38 urban counties through the year 2100. Presented in map and table form, these projections are based on extrapolations of current population trends and recent urban development trends. The next section, titled Approach, outlines the methodology and data used to develop the various projections. The following section, Baseline Scenario, reviews the projections themselves. A final section, entitled Baseline Impacts, quantitatively assesses the impacts of the baseline projections on wetland, hillside, farmland and habitat loss.

Layer ID 671
Data type Vector polygon
Feature count 10278
Services Vector Query API

California Faults

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268
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17 Oct 2011

Faults in California.

Source: tin.er.usgs.gov/geology/state/state.php?state=CA

Layer ID 701
Data type Vector linestring
Feature count 28743
Services Vector Query API

California Geology (polygons)

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844
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Californian geology as polygons.

Source: tin.er.usgs.gov/geology/state/state.php?state=CA

Layer ID 702
Data type Vector polygon
Feature count 12239
Services Vector Query API

Bay Delta Vegetation

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CDF-FRAP compiled the "best available" land cover data into a single data layer, to support the various analyses required for the 2002 Forest and Range Assessment. Typically the most current and detailed data were collected for various regions of the state or for unique mapping efforts (farmland, wetlands, riparian vegetation). Decision rules were developed that controlled which layers were given priority in areas of overlap. Cross-walks were used to compile the various sources into the common California Wildlife Wabitat Relationships (CWHR) system classification. Data sources had unique scale/resolution, multi-source data provided as 100m GRID. The original 1/2002 data used to support the Asessment is also available from the FRAP site - this record corresponds to the most recent updated version of the data (10/2002), which incorporates better data for the Mojave NE Colorado Desert areas.

Data is clipped using California Bioregion boundaries for use in the California Digital Conservation Atlas. Data is dissolved on the 'WHR13NAME' field for display purposes in the Atlas.

Source: www.atlas.ca.gov/download.html
See attached metadata file.

Layer ID 661
Data type Vector polygon
Feature count 123891
Services Vector Query API

Californian Watersheds with Dams (2003)

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188
56
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This data set represents watershed above, below and containing major jurisdictional dams.

This data set is intended for analysis of obstruction to fish passage, and watershed condition.

Source: www.atlas.ca.gov/download.html

Layer ID 679
Data type Vector polygon
Feature count 524
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Marin County soil map

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194
6
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tba

Layer ID 706
Data type Vector polygon
Feature count 3102
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California Air Basins (2004)

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166
16
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Originally developed by Teale Data Center GIS Lab; updated by California Air Resources Board, Planning and Technical Support Division. March 2004.

The California Air Basins layer is a polygon shapefile coverage representing the 15 California air basins, as defined in state statute and regulation. See the California Health and Safety Code, Section 39606 et seq. and California Code of Regulations, Title 17, Section 60100 et seq.

Air Basins identify regions of similar meteorological and geographic conditions and consideration for political boundary lines, and are related to air pollution and its transport.

Source: www.atlas.ca.gov/download.html

Layer ID 690
Data type Vector polygon
Feature count 34
Services Vector Query API

California Geology (arcs)

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115
36
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17 Oct 2011

Californian Geology as arcs.

Source: tin.er.usgs.gov/geology/state/state.php?state=CA

Layer ID 703
Data type Vector linestring
Feature count 52795
Services Vector Query API

California Air Districts (2004)

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114
10
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17 Oct 2011

The California Air Districts layer is a polygon shapefile coverage representing the California air pollution control and air quality management districts, as defined in federal and state law. See 40 CFR, Chapter I Section 81, et seq., and California Health and Safety Code, Section 40000 et seq.

This data layer shows the air district boundaries and their names as of March 2004. Air districts identify the local and regional authorities who have primary responsibility for control of air pollution from sources that are not motor vehicles. (Motor vehicles are the responsibility of the state Air Resources Board.)

Source: www.atlas.ca.gov/download.html

Layer ID 691
Data type Vector polygon
Feature count 47
Services Vector Query API

California Large Scale Conservation Areas (2004)

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79
34
Updated
09 May 2010

Large-scale conservation areas for California.

Source: www.atlas.ca.gov/download.html

Layer ID 665
Data type Vector multipolygon
Feature count 35
Services Vector Query API
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